吉林省地表温度时空变化及影响因素研究

为了掌握吉林省地表温度的时空变化规律及其影响因素,利用吉林省46个气象站的气象数据,采用气候统计和诊断方法,分析了1961—2015年吉林省地表温度的时空变化及其影响因素。结果表明:1961—2015年吉林省地表温度平均值空间分布呈由西向东逐渐降低的趋势,气候倾向率由西向东先升高后降低。地表温度高的站点升温幅度小于地表温度低的站点。地表温度多年平均值的季节排序为夏季>春季>秋季>冬季。地表温度在1月最低,7月最高。1961—2015年吉林省地表温度以0.70℃/10 a的气候倾向率显著上升,春季、夏季、秋季和冬季气候倾向率分别为0.44、0.36、0.51、1.50℃/10 a。冬季和年平均地表温度分别在2001年和1993年发生突变。地表温度绝大多数异常气候年份为异常偏暖年,多在2010年之后。未来季节和年地表温度均呈上升趋势。海拔是影响地表温度的主要地理因子,气温是主要的气候因子。夏季降水量对地表温度为负效应,冬季降水量以正效应为主。

Spatiotemporal Variation of Surface Temperature in Jilin Province and Its Influencing Factors

To understand the rules of the spatiotemporal variation of surface temperature in Jilin Province and its influencing factors, an analysis was conducted based on the meteorological data of 46 meteorological stations during 1961-2015, by means of climate statistics and diagnosis. The results showed that the mean value of surface temperature of the period displayed a declining trend from west to east; the climate tendency rate increased first and then decreased from west to east; and the temperature increase range in stations with high surface temperature was lower than those with low surface temperature. The seasonal mean temperature of years exhibited an order of summer>spring>autumn>winter. The surface temperature was the lowest in January and the highest in July, and rose at a rate of 0.70°C/10 a from 1961 to 2015, with the climate tendency rate of 0.44, 0.36, 0.51 and 1.50°C/10 a in spring, summer, autumn and winter, respectively. Abrupt change of winter and annual mean surface temperature was found in 2001 and 1993, respectively. Most abnormal years of the surface temperature were the years with abnormal warming after 2010. Future seasonal and annual mean surface temperature will witness a rising trend. Elevation is the main geographical factor affecting the surface temperature, and temperature is the main climatic factor. Summer precipitation affects the surface temperature negatively, while winter precipitation is in contrary.