Long-term population declines in Afro-Palearctic migrant birds

We present the first continent-wide analysis of the population trends of European breeding birds to show that populations of Afro-Palearctic migrant birds have shown a pattern of sustained, often severe, decline. The mean trend of inter-continental migrants was significantly negative between 1970 and 1990 and non-significantly so between 1990 and 2000. Mean population trends were positively correlated between periods, suggesting little change in the trajectory of most migrant species’ populations over this 30-year period. In both periods, trends of inter-continental migrants were significantly more negative than those of short-distance migrants or residents. This negative trend appeared to be largely, although not entirely, due to declines in species wintering in dry, open habitats in Africa. Analyses of trends of 30 closely related pairs of species, one a long-distance migrant and the other not, indicated significantly more negative trends in the former, irrespective of breeding habitat. Conservation action to address these declines is required under the Convention on Migratory Species and the Pan-European Biological and Landscape Diversity Strategy, to which most European countries are signatories and which aim, respectively, to conserve migratory species and to halt the loss of biodiversity by 2010. Our results indicate that more conservation action may be required outside Europe to achieve these targets. Further research is needed to assess whether the declines are caused by factors operating on the birds’ wintering grounds, breeding grounds or on migration routes, and to identify ways to reverse them.