基于灰色模型-元胞自动机模型的佛山市土地利用情景模拟分析

通过模拟土地利用变化情景,了解土地利用变化趋势,可为制定科学的土地利用管理策略提供支持,根据近年来建设用地扩张在佛山市土地利用类型变化中占主导地位的特点,选择灰色模型作为数量模型,元胞自动机模型作为空间模型,设定3种建设用地扩张情景:适度约束、中度约束和强力约束,结合数量模型和空间模型的优点,模拟2015年土地利用空间布局。研究结果表明:在设定的3种建设用地扩张情景下,建设用地增加的面积分别为278.3、216.5和154.6km2,相应来源于耕地的比率分别为42.28%、48.38%和55.96%,说明耕地仍然是建设用地增加的主要来源,也即耕地保护和经济发展的矛盾将会进一步增大,可为政府和土地管理部门制定政策提供一定的参考,从而采取更有针对性的措施。

Land use scenarios simulation of Foshan city based on gray model and cellular automata model

LUCC model is an efficient tool to analysis the processes and consequences of land use systems,and to support land use planning and policy.According to the problem that constructive land expansion is the main reason for land use change in Foshan city,based on remote sensing data of land use change with spatial resolution of 30 m,the paper choose grey model as quantitative model and the cellular automata model as spatial model to simulate the land use pattern of 2015 by setting different scenario conditions.Results showed that in three kinds of expansion circumstances of,constructive land,the area of constructive land increased 27 830、21 645 and 15 461 hm2 respectively,the corresponding proportion of the cultivated land was 42.28%,48.38% and 55.96% respectively.This indicates that cultivated land is still the main source of constructive land expansion,the contradiction between cultivated land protection and economic development will further expend.