Economic trade-offs to limit nonpoint sources of agricultural pollution

A national model has been built which allows analysis of physical and economic trade-offs as soil loss per acre is limited to specified levels in each major land group of the nation. Crop variables with their associated conservation practices are developed for each of 1891 land groups in 223 agricultural producing regions and 51 water supply regions. The regions and soil groups are made interdependent through regional commodity demands and a transportation submodel. Hence, changes in cropping systems and erosion control practices in one region are simultaneously expressed in effects on other regions. Soil loss limits are set at 10, 5, and 3 t per acre. The 10 t limit does not have a large impact on interregional production patterns and farm comodity prices. However, the 5 and 3 t limits, either singularly or in combination with different export levels, cause rather marked increases in commodity prices. Also at limits of 5 and 3 t, considerable shifts take place among regions in the crops grown and the erosion control methods used. Regions with erosive soils sacrificed in reduced income; regions with level soils can crop more intensely and gain greater income. Conservation practices such as reduced tillage increase the amount of pesticides needed in some regions and pose special environmental problems. The South Atlantic region is affected most by soil loss limits to control nonpoint pollution. The Great Plains regions with more level land and limited rainfall are affected least.