海上大风延伸期预报研究进展

海上大风是海洋产业的重大灾害性天气，而延伸期预报是世界性难题。目前，延伸期预报主要分成动力延伸、低频振荡、经验波传播、数理统计、气候扰动分解和集合预报等6种方法，以动力延伸中的数值模式和低频振荡中的MJO监测诊断最为流行。随着大数据时代的到来，基于大数据分析，以数值预报产品为基础的集合预报成为未来业务发展的重点方向。这6种方法都可以用于海上大风等重大灾害性天气预报，许多学者尝试较多的是气候扰动分解、低频振荡中的低频天气图等方法中的溯源技术，通过找到源头，实现重大灾害性天气的延伸期预报。

Research Progress of Extended Range Forecast of Strong Wind Over the Sea

Strong wind over the sea is a major disastrous weather for marine industry. Extended-range forecast of this kind of disastrous weather is a challenge. There are six main methods of extended-range forecast, including dynamic extended method, low frequency oscillation method, empirical wave propagation method, mathematic statistics method, climate disturbed decomposition method and ensemble forecast method. And numerical model in dynamic extended forecast and MJO in low frequency oscillation method are the most common methods. In the age of big data, ensemble forecast based on numerical model and big data analysis will be the main orientation of extended-range forecast in the future. All the six methods can be used to predict the disastrous weather such as the strong wind over the sea. The researchers tend to trace the source using climate disturbed decomposition and low frequency map in the low frequency oscillation method to make extended-range forecast.