基于STIRPAT模型的北京能源压力区域空间变化分析

综合考虑地理空间因素,以STIRPAT模型作为基础,采用能源消费总量作为环境压力的指标,以人口密度、GDP和第二产业增加值比重分别代表人口、富裕度和技术项,估计人口、富裕度、技术指标的弹性系数。将能源消费的空间差异性纳入模型,采用地理加权回归模型,从市区的尺度估计北京市16个区各驱动力因素弹性变化的差异性,得到北京市区域内部能源消费变化在空间上的变化规律。结果显示,各驱动力因素在不同区的变化并不均衡,每种驱动力因素的变化也具有一定的空间规律。由此,可针对不同区经济发展和城市化进程的差异制定个性化的调控措施。

Regional variation analysis of energy pressures of Beijing based on STIRPAT model

Considering spatial factors, the present study took geographical space effects into STIRPAT model to reveal the stochastic impacts by regression on P (population), A (affluence) and T (technology). Total energy consumption was used as indicators of environmental pressure, and population density, GDP and the proportion of secondary industry were adopted to represent population, affluence and technology, respectively. Geographical weighted regression (GWR) model was applied to estimate the elasticity of driving factors in 16 districts of Beijing. It was shown that the change of driving factors was not balanced in different districts. But, the changes in every district exhibited certain rule. Therefore, it is possible to formulate characterized regulation and control policies of energy production for different districts.