湖北省粮食生产时空变动的实证研究——基于LMDI分解法

从耕地利用效应视角，将LMDI分解法引入粮食生产时空变动的研究，构建粮食产量变动分解模型，从时空二维角度分别对1994-2012年湖北省17个地州市粮食生产的耕地规模效应、广度效应、结构效应和强度效应进行测度和分析。研究表明：时间维度上，湖北粮食产量变动的耕地利用效应作用由大到小依次为结构效应、规模效应、强度效应和广度效应，种植结构具有显著的减量效应，粮食单产和复种指数具有增量效应，而耕地规模具有双向驱动效应；空间维度上，影响各区粮食产量变动的主导因素不尽相同，黄石、荆州等地为规模效应主导区，恩施为广度效应主导区，武汉、宜昌、襄阳等地为结构效应主导区，仙桃、神农架等地为强度效应主导区。本研究进一步提出了优化调整种植结构、合理控制耕地规模、推动技术进步及施行差别化管理等政策建议。

Decomposition and measurement of effects of cultivated land use and temporal spatial variation of grain production based on LMDI method in Hubei

Based on the LMDI decomposition method and the panel data over the period of 1994 to 2012， this article analyzed the relationship between variation of grain yield and cultivated land use in Hubei and 17 cities with temporal and spatial perspectives， constructed a decomposition model of total grain yield and measured the structure effect， scale effect， strength effect and scope effect. The results showed that planting structure （structure effect） made reduction effects to the variation of grain yield in the dimension of time. Conversely， grain yield per hectare（strength effect） and multiple cropping index（scope effect） made incremental effects to the variation of grain yield. Moreover， cultivated land area（scale effect） made bidirectional driving effects to the variation of grain yield. Overall， the four effects led to grain variation as follows: structure effect> scale effect>strength effect>scope effect. Spatially， the leading factors influencing the variation of grain yield were different. The scale effect area included Huangshi， Jingzhou etc. The scope effect area included Enshi. The structure effect area included Wuhan， Yichang Xiangyang etc. The strength effect area included Xiantao， Shennong etc. On the basis of this， the authors proposed some suggestions including optimizing the planting structure， controling the scale of arable land， accelerating technical progress and carrying out the differentiation management.