基于APSIM模型的不同施肥处理下春玉米产量模拟及气候敏感性分析

以平凉市泾川县大田试验为基础，利用农业生产系统模拟模型，探究不同类型施肥处理对春玉米产量的影响以及气候变化对春玉米产量影响的敏感性差异，分析APSIM模型对模拟该地区春玉米产量的适应性。结果表明，APSIM模型对该区域春玉米产量的模拟效果较好，决定系数(R²)介于0.934～0.975，归一化均方根误差(NRMSE)介于6.073%～9.758%，模型一致性指标(D)介于0.952～0.987。模型敏感分析显示，年平均温度是模拟不同施肥处理下春玉米产量的敏感参数，其变化程度对模拟结果影响较大，不同施肥处理(CK、N、NP)下的敏感指数分别为0.533 2、0.558 7和0.568 2。

Yield Simulation and Climate Sensitivity Analysis of Spring Maize under Different Fertilization Treatments Based on APSIM Model

In order to explore the effects of different types of fertilization on spring maize yield in Jingchuan county, Pingliang city and the sensitivity differences of climate change on spring maize yield, Based on the field experiment in Jingchuan county, Pingliang city, an agricultural production system simulation model was used to analyze the adaptability of the APSIM model to simulate spring maize yield in the region and to investigate the response mechanisms of spring maize yield to different fertilizer treatments. The adaptability of APSIM model to simulate coefficient(R²) is between 0.934 and 0.975, the normalized root mean square error(NRMSE) is between 6.073% and 9.758%, and the model consistency index(D) is between 0.952 and 0.987. The sensitivity analysis of the model shows that the annual average temperature is a sensitive parameter to simulate the yield of spring maize under different fertilization treatments, and its change degree has a great impact on the simulation results. The sensitivity indexes of different fertilization treatments(CK, N and NP) were 0.533 2, 0.558 7 and 0.568 2, respectively.