| 气候变化对小麦种植面积影响的计量经济分析(英文) |
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| 引用本文： | 侯麟科,张同龙,蔡颖萍,崔永伟.气候变化对小麦种植面积影响的计量经济分析(英文)[J].农业科学与技术,2012(3):686-688. |
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| 作者姓名： | 侯麟科 张同龙 蔡颖萍 崔永伟 |
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| 作者单位： | 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所;中国科学院研究生院;农业部规划设计研究院农业发展与投资研究所 |
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| 基金项目： | Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (41101165)~~ |
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| 摘 要： | 目的]该研究旨在利用1996-2007年省级历史数据探讨气候变化对小麦种植面积的影响。方法]设立了一个面板计量经济模型,并用滞后一期变量和固定效应来控制不可观测因素的影响。结果]研究结果表明,气温升高对小麦种植面积增长有正影响,而降雨量则没有统计上显著的影响。结论]该研究为我国的小麦种植的决定因素分析提供了实证依据。
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| 关 键 词： | 气候变化 小麦种植面积 固定效应模型 |
An Econometric Analysis on the Effect of Climate Change on Wheat Cropping Area in China |
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| Linke HOU,Tonglong ZHANG,Yingping CAI,Yongwei CUI.An Econometric Analysis on the Effect of Climate Change on Wheat Cropping Area in China[J].Agricultural Science ＆ Technology,2012(3):686-688. |
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| Authors: | Linke HOU Tonglong ZHANG Yingping CAI Yongwei CUI |
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| Institution: | 1.Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research,CAS,Beijing 100101,China;2.Graduate University of CAS,Beijing 100049,China;3.Institute of Agricultural Development and Investment,Chinese Academy of Agricultural Engineering,Beijing 100125,China |
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| Abstract: | Objective] This study aimed to explore the impact of climate change on wheat cropping by using province-specific historical data during 1996-2007.Method] We established a panel data econometric model with lagged wheat cropping area and province-specific fixed-effects model to control the unobserved factors.Result] The results showed that the temperature positively affects wheat cropping area,while precipitation does not have such impact.Conclusion] The study provided empirical evidence for analysis of the determinants of wheat cropping area in China. |
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| Keywords: | Climate change Wheat cropping area Fixed-effects model |
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