冬小麦生育期降水对产量敏感性分析

[目的]研究小麦不同生育期降水对产量的敏感性。[方法]以郑州市1951~2007年的降水资料和小麦单产资料为研究对象,分析不同生育期降水量与小麦产量的关系。[结果]不同时段降水对小麦产量的敏感性不同,底墒水权重占20%,越冬期降水权重占26%,返青至开花期降水权重占32%,灌浆期降水权重占-11%;其中拔节到孕穗期间降水对小麦产量影响最大,灌浆期降水为负面影响;越冬期降水距平每提高1 mm,产量增加5.22 kg/hm2,返青至开花期降水距平每提高1 mm,增收1.545 kg/hm2。[结论]根据降水量与小麦产量的关系建立数学模型,可对小麦产量的预测提供参考。

Sensitivity Analysis of Rainfall in the Growth Stages on Yield of Winter Wheat

[Objective] The study was to research the sensitivity of rainfall in different growth stages on yield of winter wheat.[Method] The precipitation data and unit yield data of wheat in 1951-2007 in Zhengzhou City were taken as researched object to analyze the relationship of rainfall in different growth stages with the wheat yield.[Result] The sensitivity of rainfall in different stages on wheat yield was different,the weight of soil moisture water was 20%,the weight of rainfall in wintering stage was 26%,that from turning green stage to flowering stage was 32% and that in filling stage was-11%.The effect of rainfall from jointing stage to booting stage on wheat yield was the biggest,but that in filling stage was negative.The wheat yield was increased by 5.22 kg/hm2 when the precipitation anomaly in wintering stage was increased by 1 mm,and that was increased by 1.545 kg/hm2 when the precipitation anomaly from turning green stage to flowering stage was increased by 1 mm.[Conclusion] It could provide reference for forecasting wheat yield to establish the mathematical model according to the relationship of rainfall with wheat yield.