基于系统动力学的县域土地利用变化模型——以浙江省缙云县为例

土地利用变化与区域社会经济的可持续发展、全球环境效应密切相关。根据系统动力学的基本原理,在分析县域土地利用与社会系统、经济系统、环境系统以及城市化政策之间相互关系的基础上,借助系统动力学ithink软件,构建了以粮食供给安全、经济增长、环境容量等为动力机制的土地利用变化系统动力学模型。最后,通过案例的模型仿真表明模型的有效性。

Change Model of Land Use at County Level Based on Systematic Dynamics

The change of land use is closely correlated to the sustainable development of regional social economy and global environmental effect.According to the elementary principles of systematic dynamics,based on analyzing the correlations between land use at county level and social systems,economic systems,environmental systems and urbanization policies,the systematic dynamics model of land use changes with the safety of commissariat supplication,economic increment and environmental capacity etc as dynamical mechanism was constructed by using systematic dynamics ithink software.Finally,the availability of the model was showed through the model simulation of cases.