“凤凰”台风的数值检验及新资料的应用研究

基于淮河流域中尺度观测与应用试验基地的2种主要业务运行模式GRAPES、AREMS,对发生在2008年7月30~8月2日的"凤凰"台风外围云系造成的暴雨、大暴雨强降水进行了模式预报效果检验,同时针对L波段探空雷达,分析了探空垂直分布结构。结果表明:从逐日24 h降水预报情况来看,AREMS模式预报效果要明显好于GRAPES模式,不仅表现在AREMS模式预报降水接近实况降水,而且表现在AREMS模式能够预报出大雨、暴雨等较强降水级别,说明AREMS模式在降水预报方面具有优越性。从每隔12 h的AREMS模式预报效果可知,以7月30日8:00作为预报起点的降水预报,其效果好于以8月2日8:00作为预报起点的降水预报,说明AREMS模式的预报效果具有相对的波动性。分析南京站逐日8:002、0:00的L波段探空雷达数据发现,暴雨、特大暴雨过程的探空数据绝大多数呈现为随高度的增加温度降低的现象,使得大气呈现不稳定状况;但是个别时次出现逆温层,由于逆温层浅薄,不至于影响到大气的不稳定总体态势。

Test of the Phoenix Typhoon and Application Study of New Data

Based on two kinds of main models(GRAPES and AREMS) of the base of meso-scale observation and experimental application in Huaihe River basin,the forecast effect of the heavy rainfall was tested,which was caused by the outer edges of Phoenix typhoon from July 30 to August 2 in 2008.With L-band radiosonde radar,the atmospheric vertical structure was analyzed.The results showed that the daily precipitation forecast effects of AREMS model were better than those of GRAPES model.The forecast value of AREMS model was close to the real rainfall,and the heavy rainfall such as the heavy rain and the rainstorm could be forecasted by AREMS model.These indicated that AREMS model was superior in precipitation forecast.With the forecast effect of AREMS model every twelve hours,the precipitation forecast effects from the starting point at 8:00 in July 30 were better than those at 8:00 in August 2.It indicated that the forecast effect of AREMS model had a relative fluctuation.With the analysis on the daily data of L-band radiosonde radar at 8:00 and 20:00,it could be found that the L-band radiosonde radar data during heavy rainfall showed the vast majority of the decrease in temperature with the raised height,which made the atmosphere unstable situation and but inversion layer was found in the individual.Because of shallow inversion layer,the instability situation of the atmosphere was not affected.