基于Morlet小波的辽河径流量变化及其成因分析

利用辽河流域58个气象监测站点1956—2009年的年均气温、年降水量、年蒸发量和铁岭水文站对应年份的径流量数据，综合运用小波分析、小波互相关及偏相关分析，研究了上述气候因子和径流量的多时间尺度波动特征及其相关关系。结果表明:辽河年径流量的主要波动周期为10，36 a；经偏相关分析校正后，流域年均温与径流量的波动周期在全部时间尺度上（1～54 a，下同）呈负相关关系；年降水量与径流量的波动周期呈显著的正相关关系；年蒸发量与径流量的波动周期不存在显著的相关关系。由此，年均温和年降水量是辽河径流量变化的主要影响因素。梳理了基于小波分析的水文特征研究方法，并引入偏相关分析对以往研究中存在的不足进行了纠正。同时本研究所得结果也可以成为辽河流域水资源管理和调度的重要参考。

Analysis on Runoff Change and the Driving Force of the Liaohe River Basin Based on Morlet Wavelet

Using annual mean air temperature, precipitation, and evaporation data extracted from 58 meteorological stations in the Liaohe River Basin and the runoff data from Tieling hydrological station from 1956 to 2009, we explored relationships between the mentioned climate factors and runoff at multiple time scales, and their periodic fluctuation characters based on wavelet analysis, wavelets cross correlation and partial correlation analysis. The results show that: (1) the main periods of runoff are around 10 years or 36 years; (2) calibrated by partial correlation analysis, the fluctuation cycles of temperature and runoff have positive correlation at all the studied time scales (from 1 to 54 years); (3) the correlation between precipitation and runoff is significantly negative; (4) there is no significant correlation between evaporation and runoff. Therefore, temperature and precipitation are considered as the main driving forces on runoff change in the Liaohe River Basin. This study has improved methodological framework on runoff change researches based on wavelet analysis, and pointed out the shortcoming of previous studies by introducing the partial correlation method. These results also provide important information for water resource management in the Liaohe River Basin.