富春江流域径流量变化及其气候因子影响分析

为掌握富春江流域径流变化特征，从气候变化角度对水资源影响的研究做出了科学分析。利用该流域1969—2016年实测入库流量资料分析了流域径流的年、月际变化特征；同时结合流域内18个水文站的降雨资料及8个气象站点的气象要素资料等作为分析因子，利用相关分析方法分析了径流与降水、气温和蒸发等气候因子对径流的响应情况。结果表明:富春江流域的径流自20世纪60年代末至今均经历了两个丰—枯年的转换，目前进入第3个丰水年的阶段。年降水量的年际变化与径流一致，其多雨期与径流的偏丰期对应，少雨期与偏枯期对应。降水量是影响富春江流域径流量的最主要因子，气温因子仅在7—8月对流域径流的影响达到显著水平，年蒸发与年径流呈显著负相关，对径流的减少有一定影响。本研究结果可以为富春江流域的水资源优化开发和合理利用提供参考。

Runoff Change of Fuchunjiang River Basin and Its Impact Factor Analysis

In order to master the characteristics of runoff changes in the Fuchunjiang River Basin, a scientific analysis of the impact on water resources is made from the perspective of climate change. The annual and inter-monthly characteristics of runoff in the basin were analyzed by using the flow data from 1969 to 2016. At the same time, based on the rainfall data of 18 hydrological stations and meteorological element data of 8 meteorological stations in the river basin, the response of runoff and precipitation, temperature and evaporation factors to runoff was analyzed. The runoff of the Fuchunjiang River Basin has undergone two periods of transition from the end of the 1960s to the present, and it is currently entering the third period with water-abundant years. The interannual variation of annual precipitation was consistent with that of runoff, and the rainy period corresponded to the partial peak period of runoff, and the less rainy period corresponded to the partial dry period. Precipitation is the most important factor affecting runoff in the Fuchunjiang River Basin. The impact of temperature factor on runoff only reached a significant level in July and August, and the annual evaporation had a significant negative correlation with annual runoff, which had a certain effect on the reduction of runoff. The results of this study can provide the reference for the optimal development and rational utilization of water resources in Fuchunjiang River Basin.