山西省水资源生态足迹时空变化特征及驱动因素

采用水生态足迹模型，结合生态承载力和生态赤字原理，探讨了山西省水资源可持续利用的时空变化特征。并利用LMDI模型，分析了山西省2005—2015年水资源生态足迹变化的驱动因素；利用ARIMA模型预测了山西省未来5年的水资源生态足迹。结果表明:（1）2005—2015年山西省人均水资源生态足迹一直大于其生态承载力，水资源供给处于生态赤字状态，年均水资源生态赤字最高为朔州市0.372 hm²/人，最低的为长治市0.184 hm²/人；（2）山西11个行政区的水资源生态足迹账户中，除了太原市外，2005—2015年都以农业用水为主，其次为工业用水，城镇公共用水占有比例较为稳定，居民生活用水和生态环境用水占总用水生态足迹的比例有小幅提升；（3）结构效应是促进山西省水资源生态足迹增长的主要因素，经济效应为第二重要因素，人口效应对于山西省水资源生态足迹的贡献度比较低，技术效应是抑制山西水资源生态足迹过快增长的关键因素；（4）运用ARIMA （2，2，3）模型预测了山西省水生态足迹发展趋势，结果表明:未来5年山西省水生态足迹仍将继续上升，但上升趋势有所减缓，在2019年后开始缓慢下降。

Temporal and Spatial Variations and the Driving Factors of Water Resources Ecological Footprint in Shanxi Province

The water ecological footprint model, ecological capacity model and ecological deficit model were used to analyze the temporal and spatial variations of the sustainable development and utilization of water resources in Shanxi Province from 2005 to 2015. The driving factor of the water ecological footprint model was analyzed by combining with the LMDI model from 2005 to 2015. Finally, the ARIMA was used to predict the water ecological footprint in next five years. The results showed that: (1) the water consumption ecological footprint was always more than the water resources ecological capacity per capita and the utilization of water resources in an ecological deficit state in Shanxi Province; the highest annually mean of ecological deficit was 0.372 hm² in Shuozhou City and the lowest was 0.184 hm² in Changzhi City; (2) except for Taiyuan City, the irrigation water consumption took the great proportion in the total ecological footprint of water consumption of Shanxi Province followed by the industrial water consumption in 2005 and 2015; the proportion of the urban public water consumption had the stable development and the residential living and ecological environment water consumption presented the minor increase; (3) the structure effect was the main factor to promote the development of water ecological footprints, followed by the economic effect, the population effects provide a low contribution to promote the growth of water ecological footprints, the technical effect was a key factor to restrain the growth of water ecological footprint; (4) this study used ARIMA (2, 2, 3) model to forecast the water ecological footprint in Shanxi Province, the results show that the water ecological footprint of Shanxi Province in the next five years will continue to rise in a way of slowing down and begin to decline slowly after 2019.