气候变化对我国主要粮食作物产量的影响及适应措施

过去几十年气候变化对我国主要粮食作物产量产生了重要影响，为了研究作物产量对气候变化的响应和适应，保障粮食安全，基于国内相关研究文献，分析归纳了研究方法，综述了国内小麦、玉米和水稻等主要粮食作物产量对气候变化的响应和适应，得出如下结论:（1）作物产量对气候变化响应的研究方法主要包括田间试验观测、统计分析和作物模型模拟等方法，其中田间观测法最直观，统计分析法可操作性强、应用最为普遍，作物模型模拟机理性强，可以定量描述气候因子对作物产量的影响，外推效果好；（2）近几十年来，小麦生育期内气温升高和辐射变化使我国北方小麦增产0.9%~12.9%，南方小麦减产1.2%~10.2%；气候变暖对玉米产量贡献率为-41.4%~0.4%；水稻生育期内气温升高和辐射增强有利于东北地区水稻产量增加，增产贡献率为1.01%~3.29%，而辐射减弱对长江流域等南方主要水稻种植区的水稻产量（长江流域晚熟稻除外）产生不利影响；（3）未来气候变化情境下小麦应从延长生殖生长期、增加籽粒数量和提高收获指数等方面培育新品种应对气候变暖对作物产量的不利影响；耐高温和长生殖生长期的玉米品种可以用来应对气温、降水等气候因子的变化；水稻则应选育耐高温品种应对气温和辐射等因子的变化所带来的作物生产上的风险。

Effects of Climate Change on the Yield of Major Grain Crops and Its Adaptation Measures in China

Climate change has had the important impact on the production of main grain crops in China in the past few decades. In order to examine the response and adaptation of crop yield to climate change to guarantee food security, based on domestic research literature, the research methods were analyzed and summarized, the effects of domestic climate change on the yield of wheat, maize, rice and other crops were reviewed. The following conclusions were drawn as follows. (1) The research methods of crop yield mainly include field experiment observation method, statistical analysis method and crop model simulation method. Among them, the most intuitive method is field observation method, while the most operable and widely used method is statistical analysis method, and crop model simulation machine is highly rational, which could quantitatively describe the impact of climatic factors on crops and has good extrapolation effect. (2) In recent decades, the increase of temperature and radiation change in wheat growth period have led to wheat yield to increase by 0.9%~12.9% in north China and decrease by 1.2%~10.2% in south China; the contribution of climate warming to maize yield was -41.4%~0.4%; the increase of temperature and radiation in the growth period of rice was beneficial to the increase of rice yield in northeast China, while the contribution rate was between 1.01%~3.29%, whereas the decrease of radiation had the negative effect on rice yield in major rice growth regions in south China, such as the Yangtze River Basin except late rice in the Yangtze River Basin. (3) Under the future climate change situation, the new wheat varieties should be cultivated by prolonging the reproductive growth period, increasing the number of grains and improving the harvest index in order to compensate the adverse effects of climate warming on crop yield; the maize varieties with high-temperature resistant and long reproductive growth could be used to cope with the change of climatic factors such as temperature and precipitation; the high-temperature resistant rice varieties should be cultivated to compensate crop production risk caused by the change of temperature, radiation and other factors.