Maintaining or restoring connectivity of modified landscapes: evaluating the least-cost path model with multiple sources of ecological information |
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Authors: | Michael G Pullinger Chris J Johnson |
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Institution: | (1) School of Geography and Environmental Studies, University of Tasmania, Private Bag 78, Hobart, TAS, 7001, Australia;(2) Ecosystem Science and Management Program, University of Northern British Columbia, 3333 University Way, Prince George, BC, V2N 4Z9, Canada; |
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Abstract: | Habitat connectivity is an important element of functioning landscapes for mobile organisms. Maintenance or creation of movement
corridors is one conservation strategy for reducing the negative effects of habitat fragmentation. Numerous spatial models
exist to predict the location of movement corridors. Few studies, however, have investigated the effectiveness of these methods
for predicting actual movement paths. We used an expert-based model and a resource selection function (RSF) to predict least-cost
paths of woodland caribou. Using independent data for model evaluation, we found that the expert-based model was a poor predictor
of long-distance animal movements; in comparison, the RSF model was effective at predicting habitat selection by caribou.
We used the Path Deviation Index (PDI), cumulative path cost, and sinuosity to quantitatively compare the spatial differences
between inferred caribou movement paths and predicted least-cost paths, and quasi-random null models of directional movement.
Predicted movement paths were on average straighter than inferred movement paths for collared caribou. The PDI indicated that
the least-cost paths were no better at predicting the inferred paths than either of two null models—straight line paths and
randomly generated paths. We found statistically significant differences in cumulative cost scores for the main effects of
model and path type; however, post-hoc comparisons were non-significant suggesting no difference among inferred, random, and
predicted least cost paths. Paths generated from an expert based cost surface were more sinuous than those premised on the
RSF model, but neither differed from the inferred path. Although our results are specific to one species, they highlight the
importance of model evaluation when planning for habitat connectivity. We recommend that conservation planners adopt similar
techniques when validating the effectiveness of movement corridors for other populations and species. |
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