黑绒金龟(虫甲)自然种群生命表及预测预报数学模型的研究

1989～1991年对黑绒金龟(虫甲)自然种群生命表预测预报数学模型研究结果表明,经1个世代后,个体增长倍数R₀=1.024倍,种群增长稳定.经分析,3龄幼虫(k₄)是关键虫期,降雨是关键因子.对10年发生程度(y)同144个环境因子(x)进行多元回归分析,初步建立了模型Ⅰ、Ⅱ,模型历史符合率为83%～100%.依据模型预测的1991年该虫在宁夏西吉县的发生程度同实际发生程度相吻合.

STUDIES ON THE LEFE TABLE OF THE NATURAL POPULATION OF Maladera Orientalis AND ITS MATHEMATICAL PREDICTIONMODELS

In the years 1989-1991, systematic studies on Maladere orientalis Motschulsky were conducted in Xiji county,Ningxia.As aresult,a preliminary life table of its natural population and mathematical prediction models were established.(1)After one generation,the natural increase (R₀) was as much as 1.024 times annually,and the increase in population was stable.(2) The 3rd-instar larvae was the key stage,while rain acted as the principal factot.(3) Based on the multivariate regression analysis of the information gathered during 10 years of incidence (y) with 144 environmental factors (x),some prediction models were preliminarily established.The predicted results meshed with historical situations up to 83-100%,and the effectiveness of the models resched 100% in 1991.