皖江城市带示范区土地资源生态安全警情测度及时空分析

依据PSR"压力–状态–响应"框架,选择24个指标构建土地资源生态安全指标体系,将皖江城市带示范区土地资源生态安全警情级别分为"无警、轻警、中警、重警和巨警"5级,基于云模型与熵权法对皖江城市带土地资源生态安全警情进行了测量分析,揭示了其警情时空变化规律及影响因子。结果表明:(1)时序变化上,2005—2013年,皖江城市带多数城市警情趋于上升,下降的仅为合肥市。(2)从"一轴双核两翼"的空间结构来看,主轴线上安庆、池州、铜陵、巢湖、芜湖、马鞍山沿江大多数城市近年来警情呈现上升趋势。其中,铜陵和马鞍山两市警情一直处于重警以上状态,土地资源生态安全压力较大。"双核"和"两翼"城市中的合肥、芜湖、滁州和宣城市,只有滁州和宣城市土地资源生态安全状况相对较好。(3)针对云模型系统分析结果,创新土地节约集约用地长效机制、增加生态建设和环保财政投入、优化产业结构、发展低碳和循环经济等是缓解该区域土地生态安全警情和促进土地资源可持续利用的保障。分析显示,皖江城市带土地资源生态安全警情处于上升趋势,整体状况趋于恶化。警情格局的变化在一定程度上体现了该区域高速社会经济增长对土地资源产生的压力响应。

Evaluation and Spatial-temporal Characteristics of Land Resource Ecological Security Alarm: A Case of Wanjiang City Belt

The study established a set of evaluation index system containing 24 indexes for land resource ecological security (LRES) under P-S-R framework model, divided LRES of the Wanjiang City Belt (one axis, dual cores, two wings) into 5 levels of no warning, slight waning, middle warning, serious warning and heavy warning, and then analyzed LRES, its spatio-temporal changes and the influential factors by using the methods of cloud model and entropy weight. The results showed that from 2005 to 2013 the alarm level of LRESs of six cities in the axis tended to rise, while that of Hefei tended to decline. Resource-based cities of Ma''anshan and Tongling had been heavy warning level, facing serious pressure of LRES. Only LRESs of Chuzhou and Xuancheng in the dual core and the two wing were relative good. Overall, the alarm level of LRES in Wanjiang City Belt was worsening and the overall situation tended to deteriorate. The change of alarm level of LRES in Wanjiang City Belt reflected the pressure response of rapid economic growth to the land resources. The cloud model analysis on LRES alarm showed that the measures, such as presenting land saving and intensive innovative mechanism, increasing financial investment for ecological construction and environmental protection, optimizing the industrial structure of Wanjiang City Belt, developing the low-carbon and circular economy, should be taken to ease the regional alarm level of LRES and promote sustainable use of land resources.