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| 寒地春油菜菌核病流行预测方法 | |
| 引用本文： | 陈士华,吴兴泉,杜春梅,辛惠普.寒地春油菜菌核病流行预测方法[J].中国油料作物学报,2005,27(4):89-91,94. |
| 作者姓名： | 陈士华 吴兴泉 杜春梅 辛惠普 |
| 作者单位： | 1. 河南工业大学,河南,郑州,450052 2. 黑龙江大学,黑龙江,哈尔滨,150080 3. 黑龙江八一农垦大学,黑龙江,大庆,163319 |
| 基金项目： | 黑龙江省农垦总局科研项目 |
| 摘 要： | 为建立春油菜菌核病流行预测模型,利用逐步回归分析和通径分析研究1991-1998年春油菜不同生育期各气象因子与菌核病发病率间的关系,结果表明春油菜花期的气象因子对菌核病茎部发病率影响最大,其中6月下旬平均气温和7月中旬降水量是关键因子.利用花期各气象因子建立了春油菜菌核病茎部发病率回归模拟方程为:Y=-34.230056 0.405018X1-8.759353X2 9.274252X3 0.024760X4 0.1893376X5 2.835423X6同时组建了神经网络模拟模型,得到了较好的预测效果. |
| 关 键 词： | 春油菜 菌核病 预测 |
| 文章编号： | 1007-9084（2005）04-0089-03 |
| 收稿时间： | 2005-04-12 |
| 修稿时间： | 2005-04-12 |
Predicting model of Sclerotinia sclerotiorum on spring oilseed rape |
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| CHEN Shi-hua,WU Xing-quan,DU Chun-mei,XIN Hui-pu.Predicting model of Sclerotinia sclerotiorum on spring oilseed rape[J].Chinese Journal of Oil Crop Sciences,2005,27(4):89-91,94. | |
| Authors: | CHEN Shi-hua WU Xing-quan DU Chun-mei XIN Hui-pu |
| Institution: | 1. Henan University of Technology, Zhengzhou 450052, China ; 2. Heilongfiang University, Haerbing 160000 China; 3. Heilongjiang Agust 1^st reclamation university, Daqing 163319, China |
| Abstract: | In order to establish the predicting model of the Sclerotinia sclerotiorum on the spring oilseed rape, the meteorological factors in different stages of the spring rape were studied with the stepwise regression and path analysis. The results showed that the meteorological factors at flowering stage were the most important ones affecting this stem disease, with air temperature of the last ten days in June and the precipitation of the middle ten days in July were the key factors. Using these meteorological factors, the stepwise regression equation and BP-ANN model for the prediction of the disease were established and validated. |
| Keywords: | Spring oilseed rape Sclerotinia sclerotiorum Prediction |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 维普 万方数据 等数据库收录！ | |