我国蔬菜产业各类调控政策真的有效吗——基于事件分析法的研究

将21世纪以来历次蔬菜产业调控政策分为生产、流通及其他环节相关政策,采用事件分析法分别考察与评估各类政策对蔬菜价格的作用效果,并采用目标定位法对各类政策外生性进行检验。研究发现,生产环节的调控政策对蔬菜市场具有正向提价作用,且持续时间为4个月左右(实施前1个月-实施后3个月);流通环节的调控政策也具有正向提价作用,但是相比生产环节,其正向作用幅度较小且持续时间更短(一般为3个月左右,实施当月-实施后3-4个月);其他环节的调控政策对菜价仅具有正的导向作用,且作用程度较低尚达不到提升蔬菜市场价格的效果。对蔬菜产业而言,各类调控政策并未很好的实现政策初衷,对价格干预效果不佳。因此,提出要充分发挥市场的决定性作用、政府宏观调控政策有一定的必要性且不能退出、要进一步规范政府行为等政策建议。

Examination of the effectiveness of regulatory policies for vegetable industry in China based on event study

China's regulatory policies for vegetable industry since the 21st century can be divided into three categories:production policies, circulation policies, and other policies. Applying event study method, this paper seeks to investigate and evaluate the effects of regulatory policies on prices of vegetable products and their substitutes, and to test theexogeneity of the different policies of the vegetable industry by target positioning. Results show that 1) regulatory policies in the production process had positive influences on price increasing, and the duration of this effect can last for about 4months (from 1 month before implementation to 3 months after that); 2) regulation policies in circulation process also had positive influences on price increasing, but weaker and shorter than that from regulatory policies for production process;and 3) other regulatory policies only had limited positive influences, not enough to cause price increase. In general, allthe regulatory policies have not reached the expectations of the price increase for the vegetable industry in China in the21st century as designed. In order to stabilize the vegetable prices, this paper suggests that the Government should reduce policy interference to the market and let the market itself to play its role to regulate vegetable prices.