贵州粮食产量波动的影响因素研究

利用20世纪80年代以来的统计数据,运用数理统计方法对贵州粮食产量波动的影响因素进行研究。结果表明:粮食单产水平提高和粮食播种面积增加对贵州粮食产量增长的贡献分别为59.83%和40.17%;粮食单产总体水平的提高主要来源于各种粮食作物自身单产水平的提高,其对贵州粮食产量增长的贡献高达73.79%,而粮食生产内部结构调整对粮食增产的贡献为-13.96%,但结构调整对贵州粮食增产的贡献率在逐步提高、且"十五"以来结构调整的贡献率表现为正;在众多影响贵州粮食单产的因素中,影响最为显著的是旱灾率和结构变动协调性系数,且均表现为负,表明高产粮食作物对低产粮食作物的种植替代必须慎重。

Study on the influencing factors of grain output fluctuation in Guizhou

Based on statistical data since 1980s, the influencing factors of grain output fluctuation in Guizhou was studied by the mathematical statistics analysis in this paper. Results showed that 1) the increased yield and planting acreagecontributed to the growth of Guizhou grain output by 59.83% and 40.17%, respectively; 2) the higher grain yield was mainlythe result of the improvement of yields of various crops themselves, which contributed to Guizhou grain output growth as high as 73.79%, and the adjustment of the internal structure of grain production contributed to the grain yield by -13.96%; 3) the contribution rate of structure adjustment of grain production in Guizhou was gradually improving, and showedpositive influence since 2001; 4) influencing factors to Guizhou grain yield includes the drought rate and the coordinating coefficient of structural changes, imposing significant negative impact and indicating that substituting the high-yield grain crop for low-yield crops must take caution.