Use of juvenile salmon growth and temperature change indices to predict groundfish post age‐0 yr class strengths in the Gulf of Alaska and eastern Bering Sea

Juvenile marine growth (SW1) of salmon and a new temperature change (TC) index were evaluated as ecosystem indicators and predictors for the post age‐0 year class strength (YCS) of groundfish in the Gulf of Alaska (GOA) and eastern Bering Sea (EBS). Our hypothesis was that SW1, as measured on the scales of adult Pacific salmon (Oncorhynchus spp.), is a proxy for ocean productivity on the continental shelf, a rearing area for young salmon and groundfish. Less negative TC index values are the result of a cool late summer followed by a warm spring, conditions favorable for groundfish YCS. In the GOA, SW1 was a positive predictor of age‐1 pollock (Theragra chalcogramma), but not age‐2 sablefish (Anoplopoma fimbria) YCS, indicating that the growth of the Karluk River sockeye salmon that enter Shelikof Strait is a proxy for ocean conditions experienced by age‐0 pollock. Contrary to our hypotheses, the TC index was a negative predictor of GOA pollock YCS; and the SW1 a negative predictor of EBS pollock and cod YCS since the 1980s. Recent fisheries oceanography survey results provide insight into possible mechanisms to support the inverse SW1 and YCS relationship. For the EBS, the TC index was a significant positive predictor for pollock and cod YCS, supporting the hypothesis that a cool late summer followed by a warm spring maximizes the over‐wintering survival of pollock and cod (Gadus macrocephalus), especially since the 1980s. The TC and SW1 index showed value for the assessment of pollock and cod, but not sablefish.