农村生活能源消费的环境效应及影响因素分析

该文利用排放因子法估算中国各省区农村生活能源消费排放的主要温室气体（CO2、CH4和N2O）数量，计算相应的生态足迹作为其环境效应的表征指标，并采用IPAT等式的随机形式——STIRPAT（stochastic impacts by regression on population, affluence and technology）模型考察农村人口、富裕和技术因素对用能环境效应的影响作用。结果表明：1）中国农村不同类型的生活用能足迹空间差异显著，电力足迹占据绝对优势地位，沼气足迹比例最小；2）农村人口规模是用能足迹最为显著的正向影响因子，富裕水平的影响作用因用能类型不同而异，对薪柴、秸秆和煤炭足迹的影响作用不甚明显，对沼气足迹有显著负向作用，对电力足迹和用能总足迹有显著正向影响；3）农村生活用能技术生态效益省际差异较大，多个省区存在较大的技术提升空间。该研究结果能够为制订有效的节能减排策略提供科学依据。

Analysis on environmental effect of rural energy consumption and its influence factors

Emission factors were used to estimate quantity of greenhouse gas emissions from rural household energy consumption in each province of China. And the corresponding ecological footprint was regarded as the indicator of environmental effect. STIRPAT (Stochastic Impacts by Regression on Population,Affluence and Technology) model was used to analyze the influence of population,affluence and technology on the environmental effect. The results showed that:(1) The difference was significant about the footprint of...