灰色模型与回归模型在农用地基准地价评估中的比较分析

农用地基准地价评估对于建立一套完整的农用地价格体系和顺利开展土地资产合理配置、土地整理等农村土地管理工作具有十分重要的意义。以辽宁省凌源市农用地为研究对象，以农用地定级成果为基础，建立农用地纯收益预测的灰色模型和回归模型，并运用两种模型结合收益还原法对农用地基准地价进行实证评估分析。结果表明：与回归模型相比，灰色模型更加有效的减小了不同自然地理条件和土地利用方式等因素所导致的不同年份纯收益变化对于农用地基准地价的影响，因此，灰色模型在农用地基准地价计算中具有更加突出的优势。

Comparison and analysis of gray model and regression model in basic prices appraisal of agricultural land

The basic prices of agricultural land appraisal to establish a complete set of agricultural land price system and smoothly carry out land assets, such as reasonable allocation of land consolidation rural land management has the extremely vital significance. The text is a research about the basic prices appraisal of agricultural land in Lingyuan city, Liaoning province. Based on the result of the agricultural land classifying, a grey model of the predicting about the agriculture land net-income and a basic regression model was set up. Furthermore, these two models were applied into evaluating and analyzing the basic prices of the agriculture land, combining with the income returning process. Both grey model and regression model for the basic prices of the agricultural land have scientific foundation. The results showed that compared with regression model, grey model was more efficient to reduce influence of the variation of net-come in different years, which could be greatly varied among different land uses and in different geographical conditions, on the basic prices. So grey model has more advantages in the basic prices of agricultural land appraisal.