| 基于R/S分析的昆明城区降水量枯水预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 付亚丽.基于R/S分析的昆明城区降水量枯水预测[J].中国农村水利水电,2011(6). |
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| 作者姓名： | 付亚丽 |
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| 作者单位： | 云南省水利水电勘测设计研究院,昆明,650021 |
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| 摘 要： | 运用R/S分析法,对昆明气象站1951-2007年降水系列中的枯水年进行数值分析计算,结果显示其Hurst指数为0.988,表明昆明城区枯水年具有很强的持续性.在此基础上预测出昆明城区下一个枯水年的出现时间以及降水量,并经检验得知下一个枯水年出现时间的误差范围.若能对R/S法的关键边界条件继续进行界定,其预测精度将有望得到进一步的提高,而由此所得到的预测结果便可更好地服务于人民的生活及生产.所进行的定量预测分析亦是本文区别于现有研究的一个创新点,其对我国防灾减灾工作的开展具有一定的指导作用.
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| 关 键 词： | R/S分析 降水系列 Hurst指数 预测结果 |
The Forecasting of Rainfall and Dry Years of Kunming City Based on R/S Analysis |
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| FU Ya-li.The Forecasting of Rainfall and Dry Years of Kunming City Based on R/S Analysis[J].China Rural Water and Hydropower,2011(6). |
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| Authors: | FU Ya-li |
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| Institution: | FU Ya-li(Yunnan Hydraulic and Hydropower Sciences Investigation and Design Institute,Kunming 650021,China) |
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| Abstract: | Based on R/S analysis,this paper studies dry years' numerical analysis and calculation from 1951 to 2007 through the data provided by Kunming weather stations.The results show that its Hurst index is 0.988,which indicates that it will be a sustained process about dry years in Kunming City.Then this paper forecasts the occurrence time and its rainfall of the next dry year in Kunming,and learns the error margin of occurrence time about the next dry year through strict inspection.If we can continue to define t... |
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| Keywords: | R/S analysis rainfall-series Hurst index forecasting result |
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