| 基于小波分析-PSO优化ANFIS的径流组合预测模型研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 林武星,王玉明,范力.基于小波分析-PSO优化ANFIS的径流组合预测模型研究[J].中国农村水利水电,2011(5). |
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| 作者姓名： | 林武星 王玉明 范力 |
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| 作者单位： | 中国葛洲坝国际工程有限公司,北京,100022 |
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| 摘 要： | 径流序列由于多种因素的影响,存在十分复杂的变化特性,如果利用常规方法直接进行预测,其预测精度一般不高.如果将径流序列分解成比较简单的序列,再利用非线性预测方法进行预测,其精度将会得到提高.利用小波分析的多分辨率分解功能对径流序列进行分解,降低了径流序列的复杂程度.利用PSO对自适应神经模糊推理系统的网络参数进行优化,提高模型结构参数的确定精度.将小波分析与PSO优化的ANFIS进行组合对径流序列进行预测,经实例验证:该模型能够提高径流预测的精度,预测效果较好.
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| 关 键 词： | 径流序列预测 多分辨率分析 ANFIS PSO 组合模型 |
Runoff Forecast Based on Wavelet Analysis and PSO Optimized ANFIS' Combined Model |
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| LIN Wu-xing
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WANG Yu-ming
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FAN Li.Runoff Forecast Based on Wavelet Analysis and PSO Optimized ANFIS' Combined Model[J].China Rural Water and Hydropower,2011(5). |
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| Authors: | LIN Wu-xing WANG Yu-ming FAN Li |
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| Institution: | LIN Wu-xing,WANG Yu-ming,FAN Li(China Guozhouba International Co.,Ltd.,Beijing 100022,China) |
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| Abstract: | Affected by a variety of factors,runoff series are charactered by very complex change characteristics.If conventional methods are used to predict them directly,their accuracy is seldom very high.If we decompose the runoff series into more simple series,we will use nonlinear prediction methods to predict it and its accuracy will be improved.In this paper,wavelet analytical multi-resolution decomposition function is used to decompose the runoff sequences,it can reduce runoff series' complexity factor.PSO is u... |
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| Keywords: | runoff sequence forecast multi-resolution decomposition ANFIS PSO combination model |
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