| 近60年来敦煌绿洲耕地动态变化与预测研究 |
| |
| 引用本文： | 刘普幸,程 英.近60年来敦煌绿洲耕地动态变化与预测研究[J].土壤,2008,40(6):890-893. |
| |
| 作者姓名： | 刘普幸 程 英 |
| |
| 作者单位： | 西北师范大学地理与环境科学学院,兰州,730070 |
| |
| 基金项目： | 甘肃省自然科学基金，甘肃省教育厅导师项目，甘肃省级重点学科自然地理学项目 |
| |
| 摘 要： | 基于敦煌绿洲1949—2004年耕地变化特征、现状及存在问题,选取影响耕地的7个社会经济指标,利用因子分析方法(FA)分析敦煌绿洲耕地变化的驱动力。结果表明农业现代化水平、人口数量和受教育程度是影响绿洲耕地变化的3个主要驱动因子,最后通过GM(1,1)模型对未来25年的耕地和人口进行了预测,以期为敦煌绿洲耕地资源的保护和人地和谐发展提供科学依据。
|
| 关 键 词： | 敦煌绿洲 主因子 驱动力 农业现代化 GM(1 1)模型 |
On dynamic change and forecast of cultivated land in Dunhuang Oasis, Hexi Corridor |
| |
| LIU Pu-xing,CHENG Ying.On dynamic change and forecast of cultivated land in Dunhuang Oasis, Hexi Corridor[J].Soils,2008,40(6):890-893. |
| |
| Authors: | LIU Pu-xing CHENG Ying |
| |
| Institution: | College of Geography and Environment Science, Northwest Normal University |
| |
| Abstract: | Based on the analyses of the dynamic change of the cultivated land area from 1949 to 2004 in Dunhuang Oasis, this paper explored the factors which could affect cultivated land area with the method of Factor Analysis. The result showed that the agricultural modernization level, general population and their quality were three primary factors in the studied area. By establishing multiple linear regression model, the cultivated land area and general population of Dunhuang Oasis in 2010, 2015 and 2020 were predicated respectively, which could provide scientific bases for the sustainable utilization of cultivated land and sustainable agricultural development in the region. |
| |
| Keywords: | Dunhuang Oasis Principal factor Driving factors Agricultural modernization GM (1 1) |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 维普 万方数据 等数据库收录！ |
| 点击此处可从《土壤》浏览原始摘要信息 |
| 点击此处可从《土壤》下载免费的PDF全文 |
