基于InVEST和生态风险评估模型耦合的湿地生态风险评价——以吉林省为例

湿地是生态系统的重要组成部分，在保护生物多样性和区域经济发展等方面发挥着不可替代的作用。基于生态系统外部的危险性和内部的脆弱性的生态系统评价体系，选取了22个关键评价指标，耦合InVEST产水量模型和生态风险评估模型，估算吉林省湿地生态风险指数，实现吉林省湿地生态风险空间分布特征模拟，为湿地生态保护与建设提供建议。结果表明：（1）产水量模拟精度达到99.88%，空间分布呈现从东南到西北递减的特征，延边朝鲜族自治州产水量最高，产水量空间分布与降水量成正比，与温度、GDP等成反比；（2）吉林省湿地生态风险性指数从中部地区向东西部地区呈下降趋势。尤其西南地区湿地的风险性较高，由于温度高，自然灾害程度高，人口密度大，人类活动对湿地压迫性强。吉林省应采取更具有针对性的政策和措施，加强对较高风险性地区的保护，为促进区域社会经济的发展和维护生态平衡提供有力的保障。

Ecological Risk Assessment of Wetlands based on Coupled InVEST and Ecological Risk Assessment Models - A Case Study of Jilin Province

Wetlands are an important part of the ecosystem and play an irreplaceable role in the protection of biodiversity and regional economic development. Based on the ecosystem evaluation system of external danger and internal vulnerability of the ecosystem, 22 key evaluation indicators were selected, coupled with InVEST water yield model and ecological risk assessment model to estimate the ecological risk index of wetlands in Jilin Province, realize the simulation of spatial distribution characteristics of ecological risk of wetlands in Jilin Province, and provide suggestions for ecological protection and construction of wetlands. The results show that: (1) the simulation accuracy of water yield reaches 99.88%, the spatial distribution shows the characteristics of decreasing from southeast to northwest, the highest water yield in Yanbian Korean Autonomous Prefecture and Baishan City, the spatial distribution of water yield is not consistent with the spatial distribution pattern of economic development level, physical geography, etc., and is positively proportional to precipitation and inversely proportional to temperature, GDP, population density and potential evapotranspiration; (2) the wetland in Jilin Province The ecological riskiness index shows a decreasing trend from the central region to the east and west regions. The riskiness of each city in Jilin Province is ranked as follows: Siping City>Liaoyuan City > Changchun City > Jilin City > Songyuan City > Tonghua City > Yanbian Korean Autonomous Prefecture > Baishan City > Baicheng City. In particular, wetlands in the southwest are at higher risk due to high temperature, high degree of natural disasters, high population density, and high oppressiveness of human activities on wetlands. Jilin Province should adopt more targeted policies and measures to strengthen the protection of higher-risk areas to provide a strong guarantee for promoting regional socio-economic development and maintaining ecological balance.