基于土地利用结构变化的河南省碳排放时空格局及驱动力分析

河南省面临生态环境脆弱、生态承载力较低和碳排放基数较大等诸多问题,这给双碳战略的有效实施带来了挑战。本研究旨在系统研究河南省土地利用变化对碳排放量时空格局的影响,为政府制定低碳土地利用模式以及差异化的碳减排政策提供科学依据。基于2000—2020年河南省土地利用和能源消费数据,结合土地利用碳排放量方法和ArcGIS技术,本研究量化了河南省碳排放的时空格局分布,并借助地理探测器方法分析了河南省土地利用碳排放量空间分异的影响因素。结果表明：建设用地和耕地是河南省主要的碳源,林地则是主要的碳汇,碳吸收量占总吸收量的90%以上。总体上,河南省碳排放量呈现出先快速增长后缓慢下降的趋势,从2000年的3.367×107 t增长到2010年的7.337×107 t,增长率为118%;而在2010—2020年下降了5.247×106 t,下降率为7%。空间上,不同市域之间存在着显著的碳排放量水平差异,部分市域存在碳收支不平衡,且碳排放量远超碳吸收量。此外,城镇化水平、人口规模和建设用地占比对碳排放量产生显著影响,尤其是建设用地q值增长幅度最大,而人口规模q值在2020年最高。通过探究土地利用变化导致的碳排放量变化和空间格局变化以及碳排放格局的驱动力,对推动河南省土地利用方式向低碳化转变,制定有效的政策具有重大意义。

Spatial-temporal patterns and driving forces of carbon emissions in Henan Province based on land use structure changes

Henan Province faces numerous challenges, including a delicate ecological environment, limited ecological carrying capacity, and a substantial carbon emission foundation, all of which significantly impede the successful execution of the dual carbon strategy. This study aims to comprehensively investigate the influence of land use changes on the spatiotemporal distribution of carbon emissions in Henan Province. Additionally, it seeks to furnish the government with a scientific foundation for crafting models of low-carbon land use and implementing tailored policies for reducing carbon emissions. Utilizing land use and energy consumption data spanning from 2000 to 2020 in Henan Province, in conjunction with the land use carbon emission methodology and ArcGIS technology, this research quantifies both the spatial and temporal carbon emission patterns within the province. Furthermore, it employs the geographic detector method to analyze the factors contributing to the spatial disparities in land use-related carbon emissions in Henan Province. The findings indicated that construction land and arable land constitute the primary carbon sources in Henan Province, while forest land serves as the predominant carbon sink, responsible for absorbing more than 90% of the total carbon sequestration. In general, carbon emissions in Henan Province exhibited a pattern of rapid expansion followed by gradual reduction. Specifically, emissions increased from 33.67 million metric tonnes in 2000 to 73.37 million metric tonnes in 2010, marking a growth rate of 118%. Subsequently, from 2010 to 2020, emissions decreased by 5.247 million metric tonnes, representing a decline rate of 7%. The study revealed noteworthy disparities in carbon emission levels among various cities, an imbalance in carbon budgets and expenditures in certain urban areas, and regional carbon absorption inadequately offsetting carbon emissions. Moreover, the results of the impact analysis indicated that the level of urbanization, population size, and the proportion of construction land had a substantial influence on carbon emissions from 2000 to 2020. Notably, the q value related to construction land witnessed the most significant increase, and the q value associated with population size reached its peak in 2020, both exerting substantial influence on carbon emissions within Henan Province. In order to move towards low-carbon land use and make good policies in Henan Province, it is very important to look into how changes in land use affect carbon emissions and the patterns of those emissions, as well as to figure out what causes those patterns.