东北粮食主产区耕地资源变化驱动机制及其对粮食产量的影响

以东北粮食主产区巴彦县为研究区,以3S技术为手段,运用Logistic模型识别研究区耕地资源变化驱动因子,采用单因素指标法及通径分析法,探讨了单因子及复合因子对研究区粮食产量的影响。结果表明:(1)研究区耕地资源变化驱动因子主要为坡度、土壤类型、地均GDP等8个敏感性因子,且每个驱动因子对耕地资源变化的驱动机制各不相同;(2)单一驱动因子指标分级变化会引起粮食产量的改变,变化最大值为土壤有机质含量在1—2级间的改变,最小值为政策法规在2—3级间的改变;(3)复合因子对粮食产量主要表现为耕地资源变化驱动因子复合总效应每改变0.1,粮食产量的变化值约在950kg/hm2。耕地资源变化的单因子及复合因子对粮食产量均产生较大影响,粮食生产能力的提高应根据驱动因子的不同特征制定具体措施。

Driving Mechanism of Cultivated Land Resources and Its Effects on Yield of Major Grain Producting Area in Northeast China

Taking Bayan County in grain producing areas of Northeast China as the study area, with "3S" technology, Logistic model is used to indentify the driving forces of cultivated land resources change. Single factor index method and path analysis are used to explore the impact of single factor and composite factors on food production. Results showed that: (1) The driving forces of cultivated land resources change mainly included slope, soil type, average land GDP and other 8 sensitive factors, and the driving mechanism of each driving factor was different. (2) The changes in the classification of single driving factor index might lead to changes in food production. The maximum change occurs in soil organic matter content with a level of 1-2 while the minimum change occurs in policies and regulations with a level of 2-3. (3) The impact of complex factors on food production was that 0.1 changes in the driving forces may lead to a change in food production around 950 kg/hm². Both single factor and composite factors had a great impact on food production. Therefore, specific measures need to be formulated to enhance food production according to the different characteristics of the driving factors.