天山北坡中段融雪径流敏感性分析——以军塘湖流域为例

以天山北部中段军塘湖为典型研究区,利用军塘湖河流域径流和气象数据分析了高山融雪径流与温度、降雨的定量关系。基于天山北坡中段10个气象站(乌苏、石河子、沙湾、玛纳斯、呼图壁、昌吉、米泉、小渠子、大西沟、天池)1961—2010年逐月气温、降水数据等实测数据为基础进行Mann—Kendall趋势检验与分析。以模比系数差积曲线在M—K检验基础上分析径流、温度与降水之间的趋势关系。以SWAT模型为框架建立新疆军塘湖河流域水文过程模型,利用红山水库12a径流数据在SWAT模型参数校准后对新疆天山北坡融雪径流过程进行敏感性分析预测。通过改变SWAT模型输入数据的平均温度、降水量等因素分析了其对融雪径流的敏感性及影响。结果发现,从冬季至初春温度及降水等因素变化仅在融雪期对径流产生较大影响。此外,温度数据的变化对军塘湖天山北坡流域融雪径流的影响较降水量大。

Sensitive Analysis of Snowmelt Runoff on North Slope of Tianshan Mountains -Taking Juntanghu Watershed as an Example

The relationship between mountainous snowmelt runoff and temperature and rainfall was analyzed by using surface flow and climate data from the Juntanghu watershed, a typical study area for the central area of the northern Tianshan Mountains. Monthly temperature and precipitation data(1961-2010) observed from ten meteorological stations in the central area, including Wusu, Shihezi, Shawan, Manasi, Hutubi, Changji, Miquan, Xiaoquzi, Daxigou and Tianchi, were used for the Mann-Kendall trend analysis. The coefficient difference product curve was selected to analyze the relationship among temperature, runoff and precipitation. Hydrological modeling was conducted by using the soil and water assessment tool(SWAT). The parameters were calibrated by using the surface flow data(12 years) from the Hongshan Reservoir to predict the snowmelt runoff process of the Northern Tian Muontains in Xinjiang Wei Autonomous Region. Through changing the factors, such as average temperature and precipitation, results from sensitivity analysis demonstrated that snowmelt runoff was mainly affected by temperature and precipitation in snowmelt season. Moreover, from winter to spring, the effects of changing temperature were greater than those of precipitation on snowmelt runoff in the study area. This research leads to some potential contributions in understanding the mechanisms of snowmelt runoff in the warming central area of the Northern Tianshan Mountains.