江西省耕地的动态变化及驱动因子

利用江西省1990—2009年耕地变化数据以及社会经济资料,分析了该区域耕地动态变化的时空特征,并将主成分分析和多元线性回归分析相结合,揭示了江西省耕地数量变化的主要驱动力。结果表明,江西省耕地数量变化在时序上呈现出先减少后增加的趋势;在空间上区域差异性较大,不同时期各市耕地利用动态度波动较大;江西省耕地动态变化的主要驱动因子包括经济增长、社会发展和农业科技提高3个主要类别,总体上,耕地数量变化与人口、GDP、全社会固定资产投资、3大产业、耕地产出率以及农机机械总动力之间存在着显著相关性,在第1主成分中经济和人口两大因子是主要的驱动因素,第2主成分中农业科技进步是主要因子。

Dynamic Changes and Driving Factors of Cultivated Land in Jiangxi Province

The temporal and spatial characteristics of dynamic change of cultivated land in Jiangxi province was analyzed based on the cultivated land change and social economic data during 1990-2009. Meanwhile, the main driving force of cultivated land quantity change in Jiangxi Province was revealed using principal component analysis combining multivariate linear regression analysis. The results showed that cultivated land quantity change reduced at first and then increased; There were significant differences between different regions and the relative land change rate was strikingly different at different period; The main driving factors of cultivated land dynamic changes in Jiangxi Province included three main categories: economic growth, social development and agricultural science and technology advancement. Overall, the cultivated land quantity change had significant correlation with population, GDP, the social fixed assets investment, the three major industries, cultivated land output rate and farm machinery total power. There are two main driving factors in the first principal component which are economic and population. Moreover, the development of agricultural science and technology is the main factor in the second principal component.