辽宁省旱涝灾害与太阳黑子活动的相关性

应用辽宁省1956—2011年22个气象台站的逐月降水资料,通过Z指数确定了该地区的旱涝等级及发生年份;采用频率分析法分析了太阳黑子极值年附近的旱涝特征;运用Morlet小波分析技术,对辽宁省近56a来降水Z指数与太阳黑子的小波系数变化进行了分析。结果表明:(1)该地区近56a中旱涝发生频率基本相等,旱涝情况整体趋势为由涝转旱,尤其是进入21世纪后,旱灾发生次数明显增多,呈现干旱化现象。(2)各年太阳黑子数与该地区的Z指数整体上呈负相关关系;该地区在太阳黑子峰值年或峰值年附近易出现旱年,在太阳黑子谷值年或谷值年附近易出现涝年。(3)太阳黑子与Z指数在7~11a有较好的对应关系,太阳黑子的活跃期对应降水偏少期,太阳黑子的低谷期对应降水丰沛期,说明太阳黑子的变化对辽宁省降水有较大的影响,未来几年处于太阳黑子的活跃期附近,为降水偏少期。

Correlation Between Drought and Flood Disasters and Sunspot Activities in Liaoning Province

Applying the monthly precipitation data of 22 stations in Liaoning Province from 1956 to 2011, the grads and years of droughts and floods were determined by Z index. Characteristics of droughts and floods nearby the sunspot extreme years were analyzed by frequency analysis method. Morlet wavelet analysis was made to analyze the changes of the Z index and sunspot. Results show that: (1) The frequency of droughts and floods was the same in the province in the past 56 years. The overall trend was from flood to dry, especially when entering in the 21 century. The drought frequency increased significantly, showing a drought phenomenon. (2) The sunspot number and the drought and flood phenomenon in Liaoning Province showed a negative relationship. The area appeared to be a drought year in sunspot peak and a flood year in sunspot valley. (3) There was a relationship between the drought and flood cycle and sunspot cycle in 7~11 years, and the change of sunspot number influenced the droughts and floods in Liaoning Province. In the next few years, sunspots will be near the active period and precipitation will decrease correspondingly.