南京市水资源承载力评价

利用复合模糊评价模型,选用具有南京市特色的评价指标体系,以2009年为现状年,对南京市水资源承载力(WRCC)进行了评价,得出WRCC为0.365 4,表明南京市处于可承载的较低水平,已经接近不可承载的临界状态。通过灰色预测方法对南京市2020年的相关指标进行预测,再次利用复合模糊评价模型对南京市2020年的水资源承载力进行综合评价,得出WRCC为0.490 2,表明该市还处于可承载的范畴,比2009年的水资源承载能力有所提高。提高南京市水资源承载力的策略包括:(1)节约用水,减少人均用水量;(2)控制人口自然增长速率;(3)调节用水结构,降低万元GDP耗水量;(4)加强污水处理和中水利用的水平。

Evaluation on Water Resource Carrying Capacity of Nanjing City

Utilizing composite fuzzy evaluation model, selecting the characteristic evaluation index system of Nanjing City, and taking the year of 2009 as status quo, this paper evaluated the water resource carrying capacity(WRCC) of Nanjing City and obtained WRCC=0.365 4, which indicating that the water resource carrying capacity was at a low level and closed to the critical state of quasi-non-bearing. Then the paper predicted the relevant indexes of Nanjing City in 2020 with the grey prediction method and comprehensively evaluated the water resource carrying capacity of Nanjing City in 2020 reusing the composite fuzzy evaluation model. The result was WRCC=0.490 2, indicating that the water resource carrying capacity of Nanjing City will be still in the category and will be higher than that in 2009. Finally, the paper proposed some strategies to improve water resource carrying capacity of Nanjing City: (1) conserving water and reducing water consumption per capita; (2) controlling natural population growth rate; (3) regulating water structure and reducing water consumption of million GDP; (4) strengthening sewage disposal and reclaimed water utilization levels.