城市化进程与耕地变化协同性研究——以成都市为例

我国城市化进程已经进入加速发展阶段，城镇建设用地规模不断扩大，并已成为耕地面积减少的重要原因。本文基于成都市1978~2007年30年的统计数据，应用相关性分析法和协调度分析法分析了成都市城市化水平和耕地资源的变动情况，城市化水平与耕地变化的相关性，以及城市化水平与耕地资源的协调性。结果显示，30年间成都市城市化水平与耕地面积变化呈现出显著的负相关关系，城市化水平与耕地面积协调度呈阶段性分布，总体呈现出“调和和基本调和→不协调→调和和基本调和”的趋势。

Research on Coordination Between the Urbanization Development and Cultivated Land Change in Chengdu City

China＇ s urbanization process has entered a accelerated development stage, the scale of the urban construction site has extended, which was an important cause of the cultivated land has decreased. Author analyzed the changes of the urbanization level and the cultivated land resources, studied the Correlation and coordinated index between the urbanization level and the cultivated land resources of Chengdu city from 1978 to 2007 based on statistical data by methods of regression analysis and coordination analysis. The result showed that the level of urbanization was rising, the total area of cultivated land and per capita arable cultivated land was decreasing year by year; there was reverse correlation between the urbanization level and the cultivated land area, the Coordinated index between the urbanization level and the cultivated land area was a nonlinear relation, the overall trend was＂ concessive and basically concessive→not eoncessive→concessive and basically concessive＂ in the past 30 years in Chengdu City.