碳排放约束下农业全要素生产率测算与收敛性检验

从农业增长与二氧化碳排放2个方面考虑,对1995-2014年中国省际种植业运用GML(Global Malmquist-Luenberger)指数测算碳排放约束下农业全要素生产率的增长,并与传统的Malmquist指数进行比较,同时对其收敛性进行检验。结果表明:碳排放约束下农业全要素生产率增长主要由技术进步推动或技术进步与技术效率的双重贡献。碳排放约束下农业全要素生产率的省际差异和区域差异明显。河北、辽宁、黑龙江和湖南4省的农业相对属于低碳农业。从地区差异来看,增速较快的地区是华中、华北和华东地区,西北和东北居中,华南和西南增速相对较慢。整体上来看各省之间存在技术扩散,呈现σ收敛但收敛趋势并不稳定;全国、华北、东北、华东、华中和华南地区,存在绝对β收敛,而在西南和西北地区并不存在绝对β收敛;对于全国及7个地区,均存在条件β收敛,即朝着各自稳定的状态发展。

Measurement and Convergence of Agricultural Total Factor Productivity Under the Carbon Emissions Constraints

Considering to both agriculture growth and carbon dioxide emission,growth of agricultural total factor productivity (TFP) of 30 provinces of China from 1995 to 2014 under carbon emissions constraints,were analyzed using the Global Malmquist-Luenberger,and were compared to the traditional Malmquist productivity index;and then the convergence of which were further examined.The results showed that:Agricultural total factor productivity growth under carbon emissions constrains was mainly owing to technical progress or both technical progress and technical efficiency.There were distinct differences among provincial and regional agricultural total factor productivity.The agriculture in Hebei,Liaoning,Heilongjiang and Hunan Province were low carbon.And the growth of agricultural total factor productivity was fast in central,north and east China,medium in northwest and northeast,but slow in south and southwest.A trend of σ convergence was shown among provinces,but not stable.There was absolute β convergence in whole,north,northeast,east,central and south China,but not in southwest and northwest areas.China and other seven areas showed conditional β convergence which developed toward stable states.