中国—东盟自由贸易区的农产品贸易效应——基于合成控制法的实证评估

为探究中国—东盟自由贸易区（CAFTA）框架下所产生的农产品贸易效应，从大国贸易模式、关税差异和贸易产品互补性等角度拓展了经典的自由贸易区理论，构建了CAFTA农产品贸易效应分析框架，并利用合成控制法评估了1995—2020年中国与东盟、中国与东盟各成员国的农产品进出口贸易效应。结果表明：1）CAFTA的实施给中国与东盟的农产品贸易带来了显著影响，中国与东盟农产品贸易增长主要来自贸易创造效应，而非贸易转移效应。2）随着双边关税的逐步削减，在“早期收获计划”、自由贸易区建成和自由贸易区升级版等阶段，中国与东盟农产品贸易的进口效应和出口效应都呈现逐步扩张的态势。3）这期间，CAFTA对东盟不同国家与中国的农产品贸易效应产生了异质性的影响，互补性越强、开放程度越大，则双边农产品贸易创造效应更大。因此，实施更高水平的自由贸易区战略，有利于进一步拓宽中国农产品的进出口渠道，提高社会的经济福利。

The agricultural-trade effect of China and ASEAN under CAFTA: An empirical evaluation based on synthetic control method

This study expands the classical model of the Free Trade Area（FTA） and designs the theoretical framework for analyzing the trade effects of agricultural products in the China-ASEAN Free Trade Area （CAFTA） from the perspectives of the great power trade model， tariff differences， and complementarity among trade products. The synthetic control method is utilized to evaluate the trade effects of agricultural products by taking China-ASEAN as a whole and for each member country of ASEAN during the period from 1995 to 2020. The results show that： Firstly， the implementation of CAFTA had a significant impact on the agricultural products between China and ASEAN. The growth of agricultural product trade between China and ASEAN mainly comes from the trade creation effect rather than trade diversion effects. Secondly， with the gradual reduction of bilateral tariffs， both the import and export effects of agricultural products between China and ASEAN have shown a trend of gradual expansion. Thirdly， CAFTA displayed a heterogeneous impact on the trade effects of agricultural products between different ASEAN countries and China. The greater the complementarity and openness is， the larger the trade creation effects in bilateral agricultural trade will be. Therefore， implementing a higher-level FTA strategy is beneficial for further expanding China''s import and export channels for agricultural products and improving the economic welfare of society.