基于VAR模型的新疆农业科技资源与农业经济增长的动态关系研究

农业科技资源投入是推进区域农业经济增长的关键。本文基于新疆2001—2020年时间序列数据，采用VAR模型分析新疆农业科技资源各要素与农业经济增长之间的动态关系。结果表明：新疆农业科技资源各要素与农业经济增长之间存在长期稳定均衡关系，而农业科技资源对短期偏离均衡的调整力度为106.93%；农业科研开发活动经费投入与农业经济增长之间存在单向格兰杰因果关系；农业机械总动力与农业技术人员数量之间存在单向格兰杰因果关系；两者之间的互动关系是长期良性状态。通过脉冲响应分析可知，就短期而言，农业科技资源对农业经济增长具有显著影响。总的来说，农业科研开发活动经费投入、农业机械总动力与农业技术人员数量对农业经济增长的促进作用具有不稳定性，四者之间的相互作用较复杂。

Research on the Dynamic Correlation between Agricultural Science and Technology Resources and Agricultural Economic Growth in Xinjiang Based on VAR Model

The investment in agricultural technology resources is the key to promoting regional agricultural economic growth. Based on the time series data of Xinjiang from 2001 to 2020, the VAR cointegration model is used to analyze the dynamic correlation between various elements of agricultural science and technology resources in Xinjiang and agricultural economic growth. Research has shown that: (1) there is a long-term stable equilibrium relationship between the various elements of agricultural science and technology resources in Xinjiang region and agricultural economic growth, while the adjustment of agricultural science and technology resources to short-term deviation from equilibrium is 106.93%; (2) There is a one-way Granger causality between the investment in agricultural research and development activities and agricultural economic growth; There is a one-way Granger causality relationship between the total power of agricultural machinery and the number of agricultural technicians; The interaction between the two is a long-term benign state. (3) Pulse response analysis shows that in the short term, agricultural technology resources have a significant impact on agricultural economic growth. Overall, the investment in agricultural research and development activities, the total power of agricultural machinery, and the number of agricultural technicians have an unstable promoting effect on agricultural economic growth, and the interaction between the four is relatively complex. Therefore, it is proposed that Xinjiang should increase investment in agricultural research, deepen the reform of the management mechanism of agricultural research institutions, accelerate the transformation of agricultural scientific and technological achievements, and make good use of agricultural mechanization policies that benefit farmers.