基于贝叶斯分析的干热河谷区橙子林冠层蒸腾耗水模拟

需耗水机制是进行农田/果园水分管理和调控的基础。本文聚焦蒸腾耗水机制，基于贝叶斯参数估计方法对比了不同Jarvis-Stewart模型配置对干热河谷区橙子林蒸腾耗水量的模拟效果，探索了Jarvis-Stewart模型在影响因子交互效应较强条件下蒸腾耗水模拟中的适用性。结果表明，考虑不同影响因子及其限制函数会对模拟效果产生较大影响，其中考虑土壤含水率和叶面积指数对模拟效果改善作用明显，而引入饱和水汽压差和气温则不同程度地降低模拟精度；考虑的影响因子越多，模型结构越复杂，模拟效果不一定越好；筛选出的最佳模型结构基本实现了橙子林蒸腾耗水的可靠模拟，但模拟效果仍有明显改进空间，因此，应综合考虑模型复杂程度、模拟精度及不确定性等，进一步探究适宜的模型结构。研究可为果园节水灌溉技术体系建立和水分管理优化提供科学依据，也能为耗水模型的进一步发展和完善提供理论支撑。

Canopy Transpiration Water Consumption Simulation of Orange Forest in Dry and Hot Valley Area Based on Bayesian Analysis

The mechanism of water consumption is the basis for management and regulation of water in farmland/orchards. Focusing on the transpiration mechanism of water consumption, the simulation effect of different Jarvis-Stewart model configurations on transpiration consumption in orange forests in dry and hot valleys was compared based on Bayesian parameter estimation methods, and the applicability of Jarvis-〖JP〗Stewart model in the simulation of transpiration water consumption under the condition of strong interaction effect of influence factors was explored. The results showed that considering different influencing factors and their limiting functions would have a great impact on the simulation effect, among which considering soil moisture content and leaf area index had obvious effects on the improvement of the simulation effect, while the introduction of saturated water vapor pressure difference and air temperature would reduce the simulation accuracy to varying degrees. The more impact factors considered, the more complex the model structure was, and the better the simulation effect was. The best model structure screened out basically realized the reliable simulation of water consumption of transpiration in orange forest, but there was still obvious room for improvement in the simulation effect, so the model complexity, simulation accuracy and uncertainty should be comprehensively considered to further explore the appropriate model structure. The research can provide scientific basis for the establishment of water-saving irrigation technology system and water management optimization in orchards, and also provide data support for the further development and improvement of water consumption models.