一次冷涡影响的区域强对流天气分析

使用观测资料、雷达资料和ERA5再分析资料,对2022年6月13午后至夜间的冷涡背景下的两次影响济南的强对流过程进行分析。结果表明,地面辐合线与冷池的复杂相互作用在对流回波发展加强过程中起到了重要的作用,尤其是造成了第一次对流降水强度强,移动迅速,发展为超级单体和弓形回波。根据环境参数的实况分析和模式预报,可以较准确地判断2次对流过程的强度。环境条件较弱是造成第二次对流未发展加强的主要原因。在临近预报业务中,预报员需要利用多种实时加密观测数据,结合对流发展条件和中尺度模式预测对流天气的发生发展情况。

Analysis of A Severe Convection Weather Process Affected by Cold Vortex in Ji’nan

This study analyzes two strong convective processes affecting Jinan under the background of a cold vortex on June 13, 2022, by using observational data, radar data, and ERA5 reanalysis data. The results show that the complex interaction of the ground convergence line and the cold pool played an important role in the development and strengthening of the convective echo, especially causing the strong intensity and rapid movement of the first convective precipitation, which developed into supercell and bow echo. Based on the observations and predictions of environmental parameters, the intensity of two convective processes can be accurately determined. The weak environmental conditions are why the second convection did not develop and strengthen. Therefore, forecasters need to use multiple real-time observation data, combined with convective development conditions, and numerical models to predict the occurrence and development of convective weather.