互联网使用促进农户参与“粮改饲”了吗？基于农牧交错带农户调研的微观证据

在互联网强国战略背景下,基于农牧交错带陕西和甘肃两省1 479份农户的调研数据,运用Probit模型和条件混合过程估计方法（CMP）,探究互联网使用对农户参与“粮改饲”的影响,并关注不同养殖规模和不同人力资本禀赋条件下互联网使用对农户参与“粮改饲”影响的异质性。结果表明：1）互联网使用提高了农户参与“粮改饲”的可能性,即在给定其他变量不变的情况下,有互联网使用行为的农户参与“粮改饲”的几率比是没有互联网使用行为农户的38.82%,该结果在经过子样本检验和更换核心解释变量检验后依然稳健。2）异质性估计结果表明,互联网使用对农户参与“粮改饲”的影响在不同养殖规模和不同人力资本禀赋条件下存在差异,即非规模养殖户和低人力资本禀赋的农户家庭更容易通过使用互联网参与“粮改饲”。由此提出,完善农牧交错地区互联网利用配套设施,提高农户农业经营的网络化水平,实施差别化的互联网扶持措施等政策建议。

Does internet use promote farmers’ participation in ‘Food-fodder change’? Micro evidence based on farmer surveys in the agro-pastoral ecotone

Under the background of internet power strategy， based on the survey data collected from 1 479 farmers in the agriculture-animal husbandry zone of Shaanxi and Gansu provinces， the Probit model and conditional mixed process estimation method （CMP） were used to explore the impact of internet usage on farmers’ involvement in ‘Food-fodder change’， the heterogeneity of the impact of internet use on farmers’ participation in ‘Food-fodder change’ under different farming scale and different human capital endowment conditions were also concerned. The results are as follows： Firstly， the use of internet can improve the possibility of farmers participating in ‘Food-fodder change’， that is， given other variables unchanged， the probability of farmers with Internet use behavior participating in ‘Food-fodder change’ is 38.82% of that of farmers without internet use behavior. This result is still robust after subsample test and core explanatory variable test. Secondly， the analysis of heterogeneity among farmer households reveals that the influence of internet usage on farmers’ engagement in ‘Food-fodder change’ varies depending on their farming scale and human capital endowment， that is， non-scale farmers and peasant households with limited human capital tend to be more inclined to participate in ‘Food-fodder change’ through internet utilization. Therefore， it is proposed to improve the supporting facilities of internet utilization in the agricultural and animal husbandry interlace area， improve the network level of farmers’ agricultural management， and implement differentiated internet support measures.