江苏省耕地变化与经济发展关系的实证研究

研究利用Eviews 8.0 软件，采用Chow检验、ADF检验、协整分析、AIC准则以及Granger 因果关系检验等计量经济方法，旨在分析1978—2009 年间江苏省耕地面积变化与经济增长之间的关系，并对江苏省耕地变化与经济发展关系的阶段性特征做出总结。结果表明：自1978 年以来，江苏省耕地面积与经济发展大致经历了2 个阶段：第一阶段(1978—1991)是互为因果关系，在该阶段内江苏省经济增长主要以耕地的牺牲为代价。第二阶段(1992—2009)是单向因果关系，在该阶段内耕地资源数量减少为经济发展提供了土地保障的作用，但经济增长并不是耕地资源数量变化的原因。从1978—2009 这一长期阶段来看，江苏省在这一时间段内经济增长与耕地变化存在单向因果关系，即耕地面积数量变化对经济的发展产生了积极的影响，但经济发展并不是耕地面积减少的原因。通过对江苏省1978—2009 年各阶段耕地变化与经济发展之间的关系进行探究，对如何处理耕地面积减少与经济发展之间的关系提出建议，这对今后经济发展与耕地变化相关问题的研究具有一定的借鉴意义。

The Relationship Between Cultivated Land Change and Economic Development in Jiangsu: An Empirical Study

This paper uses the Eviews 8.0 software, Chow test, ADF test, cointegration analysis, AIC criterion, Granger causality test and other econometric methods to analyze the relationship between cultivated land area change and economic growth in Jiangsu from 1978 to 2009, and summarizes the characteristics of the relationship. The results showed that since 1978, the cultivated land area of Jiangsu and the economic development had experienced two stages: the first stage (1978 to 1991) was causality, in which the economic growth was mainly at the expense of the cultivated land; the second stage (1992 to 2009) was one- way causality, in this stage, the decrease of cultivated land resources provided land security for economic development, but the economic growth was not the reason of cultivated land resources change. For the longterm of 1978 to 2009, the economic growth and the change of cultivated land was a one- way causal relationship, namely, the quantity change of cultivated land had a positive impact on the economic development, but the economic development was not the reason for the decrease of cultivated land area. Finally, the paper puts forward suggestions on how to deal with the contradiction between cultivated land protection and economic development, which can provide certain references for future research on the related issues.