安塞山地苹果初花期预报研究

安塞山地苹果初花期霜冻灾害多发，开展苹果初花期预测，以期为农业生产提供指导，减少灾害损失。采用直线回归方程求导法，对安塞山地苹果的生物学零度、花期活动积温、花期有效积温进行分析，对初花前50天各旬气温积算值与初花期的相关性进行分析。用相关显著的气温积算值回归方程式，对初花日进行检验和预测。结果表明：苹果初花期前4旬旬平均气温积算值和旬最高气温积算值与初花日相关显著，旬平均气温生物学零度值为2.9℃。通过检验，2006—2015年苹果初花日的预报准确率较高。通过预报，2018年苹果初花日预报值与实际观测值吻合。初花期前4旬旬平均气温和旬最高气温积算值回归方程式可应用到后期苹果初花期预报中，为苹果花期防御气象灾害和科学管理提供依据。

Apple at Initial Flowering Stage in Ansai Mountainous Area: Prediction Research

In the mountainous area of Ansai, the frost hazard occurrence at apple initial flowering stage is frequent, and the prediction of the initial flowering stage of apple is carried out to provide guidance for agricultural production and reduce disaster losses. By using the derivation method of linear regression equation, we analyzed the biological zero, active accumulated temperature and effective accumulated temperature at flowering stage of apple in Ansai mountainous area, explored the correlation between the accumulated temperature of each 10-day period 50 days before the initial flowering and the initial flowering stage, and tested and predicted the initial flowering day by using the regression equation of the relevant significant accumulated temperature. The results showed that: the 10-day average accumulated temperature and maximum accumulated temperature in the 4 10- day periods before the initial flowering stage were significantly correlated with the initial flowering day; and the biological zero of 10-day average temperature was 2.9℃; according to the test, the prediction accuracy rate of the initial flowering day in 2006-2015 was relatively high; the forecast value of the initial flowering day in 2018 was consistent with the actual observed value. The regression equation of the average accumulated temperature and maximum accumulated temperature in the 4 10-day periods before the initial flowering stage of apple can be applied to the forecast of initial flowering stage in future, which can provide a basis for the prevention of meteorological disasters in the flowering period of apple.