阿勒泰地区近40a气温变化分析及其灰色预测

利用新疆阿勒泰地区1961—2001年气象观测资料,分析得出阿勒泰地区气温变化与全国和新疆气温变化基本一致,但又具有明显的区域性特点,即:近40a阿勒泰地区年度和四季的气温变化倾向率均为正值,呈现出气温升高的趋势,并且,春、夏、秋季的气温变化对年度的变化影响比较显著,都通过了0.01的显著性检验,但是,近些年来变暖脚步渐缓。利用1990—2004年的气温资料和灰色系统模型,预测了阿勒泰地区2005—2010年的平均气温,可以看出:气温将仍旧呈递增趋势。

Research on Temperature Changes of Altai Region in Recent 40 Years and the Grey Forecasting

The relatively complete temperature data of Altai in 1961-2001 were analyzed.The results showed that the trend of temperature change in Altai was basically the same with that in Xinjiang and even in China.However,some regional characteristics existed obviously.That was: in recent 40a,the changing rate of annual and seasonal temperatures were positive.It was showed that the temperature raised.Besides the changing of temperature in spring,summer and autumn affected the changing of annual temperature notabily,they are all passed the 0.01markdeness test,but now the warming process slows down.Using the data of temperature during 1990-2004 and The Grey Forecasting Model to forecast the average temperature of 2005-2010 in Altai,it could be seen that the temperature would raise still.