GM(1,1)模型改进技术在咸阳市地下水动态预测中的应用

针对地下水埋深变化离散性程度较大的咸阳市，采用GM（1，1）模型改进技术对其地下水动态进行预测研究，为地下水埋深的准确预测提供支持。以灰色理论GM（1，1）模型为基础，运用滑动平均法对离散性程度较大的原始序列进行改造，使原始数据的变化变得缓慢，再利用改造后的序列建立GM（1，1）^*模型，以咸阳市地下水埋深资料为研究对象，进行地下水动态预测，并与未改进的GM（1，1）模型的预测结果进行比较。咸阳市地下水动态的预测结果显示，该区地下水埋深有逐年减小的趋势，说明该区地下水资源得到了有效的保护与利用。利用2001-2007年的地下水埋深资料建立GM（1，1）^*模型进行预测，相较于实测数据，GM（1，1）^*模型的预测结果科学合理；相较于未改进的GM（1，1）模型的预测结果，改进后的GM（1，1）^*模型具有更高的预测精度和实用性。GM（1，1）模型改进技术的应用，减小了原始序列的离散性程度，提高了预测精度，为地下水动态预测提供一种新思路。

The Improved Technology of GM (1,1) Model in Predicting Groundwater of Xianyang City

For the high degree of dispersion of groundwater level of Xianyang city,the improved GM(1,1) ^* model was used for predicting the groundwater.Based on grey theory GM(1,1) model,it transforms the high degree of dispersion of the original sequence by moving average method,slows the growth of the original data,and uses the transformed sequence to establish the GM(1,1) ^* model.And using the data of groundwater level of Xianyang city,groundwater level is predicted,and the result is compared with the result of prediction of the unimproved GM(1,1) model.From the prediction of groundwater of Xianyang city,we can see that,the groundwater resources has been effectively protected and used so that the groundwater level is decreasing year by year.It uses the data of groundwater level from 2001 to 2007 to build the GM(1,1) ^* model.Compared with the measured data,the result of the GM(1,1) ^* model is scientific and rational;and compared with the result of the unimproved GM(1,1) model prediction,it reflects higher prediction accuracy and strong practicality.The application of improved technology of GM(1,1) model,it decreases the degree of dispersion of the original data,improves the prediction accuracy and provides a new way for predicting the groundwater.