Modelling and forecasting epidemics of apple powdery mildew (Podosphaera leucotricha)

A model developed to simulate epidemics of powdery mildew on vegetative shoots of apple generates two types of output. Firstly, it forecasts disease severity (percentage of host tissue infected) by incorporating effects on disease development of the amount of healthy susceptible tissue and current infectious (sporulating) disease, the level of initial inoculum (overwintered 'primary' mildew) and weather conditions. The effects of weather variables are considered on only two aspects of the fungal life cycle: initial spore germination and the subsequent development during the incubation period. Secondly, the model generates indices of the relative favourability of weather conditions on disease development by incorporating effects of weather on conidial production/dispersal and germination. On each day, forecasts of the (relative) severity of new infection and total current infectious disease are given for both types of output. The model was evaluated by comparing its predictions with the mildew epidemics observed in two unsprayed orchards over four years. In all the years, the temporal patterns of the predicted and the observed disease were generally similar. The pattern of the disease severity forecasts was marginally closer to the observed than that derived from two weather indices. Potential roles of the model in practical management of apple powdery mildew are discussed.