气候变化情景下我国水稻产量变化模拟

利用中国随机天气模型将IPCC最新推荐的气候模式HadCM2和ECHAM4与作物模式CERESRICE3．5相连接，模拟了未来4种气候情景下我国主要水稻产区产量的变化趋势。结果表明：（1）未来气候情景下，水稻产量大多表现为不同程度的减产趋势，其中早稻减产幅度最大；地区上以东北地区减产幅度最大。（2）若不取温室气体减排措施，2056年我国水稻产量较2030年减产程度更加明显；即使采取温室气体减排措施，水稻产量下降的趋势也没有大的改变；（3）高海拔地区在未来气候情景下表现出一定的增产趋势。

Simulation of Rice Yield under Climatic Changes in Future in China

The GCMs HadCM 2 and ECHAM 4 are linked with the crop model CERES-RICE3.5 by Stochastic Weather Generator to simulate rice yield in China under four climatic conditions. The results show: (1) There is a reduction trend of rice yield in main rice production areas of China, it is more serious in Northeast of China and of early rice. (2) If CO 2 abatement were adopted, rice yield reduction wouldn't have major change. (3) In the region of high altitude where is suitable for rice growth in the future, especially in the Southwestern China, rice will show a trend of increasing in yield.