石羊河流域水资源短缺风险敏感因子的确定

本文从风险的角度对石羊河流域水资源短缺问题进行了探讨。首先 ,通过实地调查和资料分析 ,列出了可能导致流域水资源短缺风险的各方面原因 ,并建立了相应的风险指标体系。然后 ,对流域 6个行政分区的风险指标值进行了获取工作。针对石羊河流域的实际资料 ,采用主成分分析法和改进的灰色关联度法对风险指标进行定量筛选 ,最终确定出导致风险的敏感因子 ,为进一步进行风险评价奠定了基础 ,同时也为制订风险的防范措施和对策提供了理论依据。

Determining the Sensitive Factors for Water Resource Scarcity Risk in Shiyang River Basin

The scarcity of water resources in Shiyang River Basin is discussed in the view of risk in this paper. We put forward the primaryfactors that cause the water resourcescarcity risk and establish the index system based on the systematic qualitative analysis. The values of these risk factors in 6 administrative divisions are obtained. The risk factors are selected according to the principal component weight analysis method and the improved grey association analysis method, and the sensitive risk factors are ensured at last. It is provided the theoretic principles to make preventable measures for the risk in this paper.