Modelling the effect of buoyancy on the transport of anchovy (Engraulis capensis) eggs from spawning to nursery grounds in the southern Benguela: an IBM approach

An individual‐based model (IBM) was used to investigate the effects of physical and biological variables on the transport via a jet current of anchovy (Engraulis capensis) eggs from spawning to the nursery grounds in the southern Benguela ecosystem. As transport of eggs and early larvae is considered to be one of the major factors impacting on anchovy recruitment success, this approach may be useful to understand further the recruitment variability in this economically and ecologically important species. By coupling the IBM to a 3D hydrodynamic model of the region called Plume, and by varying parameters such as the spatial and temporal location of spawning, particle buoyancy, and the depth range over which particles were released, we could assess the influences of these parameters on transport success. A sensitivity analysis using a General Linear Model identified the primary determinants of transport success in the various experimental simulations, and model outputs were examined and compared with patterns observed in field studies. Model outputs compared well with observed patterns of vertical and horizontal egg distribution. Particle buoyancy and area of particle release were the major single determinants of transport success, with an egg density of 1.025 g cm^?3 maximizing average particle transport success and the western Agulhas Bank being the most successful spawning area. This IBM may be useful as a generic prototype for other upwelling ecosystems.